The Political Opportunity Game Continues...

Thursday, January 16, 2003

By J. Randy Evans

The transformation of the Georgia political landscape continues. Not long ago, the light of the Georgia Republican Party dimmed with the unexpected death of Senator Paul Coverdell and reapportionment maps that seemed to guarantee Democratic control at every level of Georgia government. Then, Governor Roy Barnes appointed popular former Governor Zell Miller to replace Coverdell, and started collecting nearly twenty million dollars for a political war chest. Miller's easy reelection over former Senator Mack Mattingly, and federal court approval of the heavily gerrymandered Congressional districts left most believing that a two-party system remained out of Georgia's reach for years to come.

Of course, the 2002 election changed all of that. Sonny Perdue was elected Governor. Saxby Chambliss captured the United States Senate seat. And, Republicans retained control of Georgia's Congressional delegation. The political dominoes continued to fall after the election with the defection of four Georgia Senate Democrats giving Republicans control of the Georgia Senate. Then, the unbeatable Zell Miller announced his retirement, leaving his United States Senate seat open for Republican challenge in a year in which President George W. Bush will be at the top of the ticket. There was a temporary pause in the steady toppling of political dominoes as Terry Coleman beat back GOP efforts to derail total Democratic control of the Georgia House of Representatives.

Within the parties, there has no respite from the shifting political sands of Georgia's political landscape. Sixth District GOP Congressman Johnny Isakson has decided to try his hand again at statewide politics with a bid for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by Zell Miller. Some of his colleagues in the U.S. House are also toying with the idea of a Senate campaign, including Jack Kingston, Mac Collins, and Charlie Norwood. And, still out there is conservative stalwart Bob Barr, fresh off of a series of Fellowship appointments and consulting contracts including an agreement with CNN.

Although the solidly Republican Sixth Congressional District affords little opportunity for Democrats, it offers real possibilities for many up and coming Georgia Republicans. Under one unlikely scenario, Eleventh District Congressman Phil Gingrey could come home to Cobb to assume the Isakson mantle in the Sixth District, leaving the Eleventh for other challengers. Other possible candidates for the Sixth Congressional District include Senate Majority Leader Tom Price, former GOP Chairman and former Georgia Senator Rusty Paul, and current GOP Senators Robert Lamutt and Chuck Clay.

The list of potential GOP candidates for U.S. Senate does not end with Isakson. Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine is also eyeing the job. His early departure could signal an entirely different set of opportunities for the GOP bench.

On the Democratic side, there remains the outside possibility that Senator Cleland makes another run at his old job. And, Lieutenant Mark Taylor may decide that ribbon cutting is just not enough. Secretary of State Cathy Cox has her eyes firmly fixed on the Governor's Mansion, so a bid by her remains unlikely, but not out of the question. And, there is a whole host of House and Senate Democrats eager for a shot at resurrecting their party.

No one pretends to know what this all means, except that political uncertainty - the mother of political opportunity - seems to have found her way to Georgia.


J. Randy Evans
Randy is a partner at McKenna, Long, Aldridge & Norman in Atlanta and serves as General Counsel to both the Georgia Republican Party and U.S. House Speaker J. Dennis Hastert.