What Did GWB Expect? A Cakewalk For His Reelection?

Wednesday, October 08, 2003

By J. Randy Evans

Every fourth year, the President of the United States faces the unenviable challenge of having a group of candidates crisscrossing the country attacking every one of his policies and actions. 2003 is no different for George W. Bush, except that the number of candidates beating up on him is a little larger than normal and the times are a little more challenging. In the end, the issues always end up being the same, in approximately the same order.

First, there is the economy. The problem for the President is twofold. Initially, it has been almost three years since his election and two years since September 11, 2001. While there is always some give to the President for fixing a broken economy which he inherits and responding to the unanticipated disasters of the times, there is an expectation that over time, the Administration should be able to take action to turn a sluggish economy around. The expectation was there in 1979, and again in 1991, and is there now in 2003. Incumbent Presidents (Carter and Bush I) have not faired well when the economy has remained bad when election time rolls around.

A compounding factor for President Bush is that there has been plenty of action to spur the economy, including sizable and multiple tax cuts, the replacement of the Treasury Secretary, and a steady diet of interest rate cuts. There really is not much more the government can do to solve the problem other than focus on corrections to the fundamentals of a new economy based on the e-commerce revolution that is underway.

Second, there is national security. With a steady increase in defense spending, and the creation of the Department of Homeland Security, there has been some progress toward a return the level of security prior to September 11, 2001. Unfortunately, the comfort level has remained tenuous, and any significant terror attack would shatter any confidence build-up from the last two years. To date, the Administration has not succeeded in convincing many Americans that the military operations in Afghanistan and Iraq have resulted in a direct increase in security here in the United States. Indeed, the steady stream of servicemen deaths in Iraq have only exacerbated the uncertainty of whether any level of control has in fact been established in the war against terror.

After the economy and national security, there is everything else. Various groups have their own issues. There is the environment, gun control, abortion, minority rights, and the like. Most of these constituent groups line up behind political parties and candidates based more on historical allegiances than the actions of the moment.

Within the framework of these issues, the Democratic candidates in 2003 hammer away at the President from many different directions. With no single opponent, the President is left to fiend off the attacks as best he can until such time as a clearly identifiable opponent emerges. And so goes the fall of the year before an election and the spring of the year of the election - all defense until everyone knows who has the ball.


J. Randy Evans
Randy is a partner at McKenna, Long, Aldridge & Norman in Atlanta and serves as General Counsel to both the Georgia Republican Party and U.S. House Speaker J. Dennis Hastert.