Oklahoma Republican Senator Don Nickles’ unexpected retirement from the United States Senate has caused a subtle shift in the momentum leading up to the 2004 General Election. While even most Democrats are willing to concede that Republicans are decided favorites to retain control, the GOP optimism has been stemmed by a few recent developments.

Prior to recent weeks, Republicans were eyeing significant gains in the Senate as a result of retirements in key southern states combined with hefty approval ratings for President Bush. Certainly, Democratic Senator Zell Miller’s announcement in Georgia that he would not seek reelection elevated hopes of key GOP pick-ups. Absent Miller’s retirement, Republicans had virtually no chance of winning the seat as Miller was and remains one of the most popular political figures in Georgia history. With his departure, however, Georgia Republicans were able for the first time to draw on their political bench strength with two popular Republican Congressman stepping up to challenge for the seat. Indeed, with such success has come the fear that the two GOP heavyweights would beat each other up and risk an almost certain November win. Yet, Democrats have been unable to even field a credible candidate notwithstanding a constant wooing by National Democrats of virtually every viable Democratic candidate in the state.

Adding to the Democratic woes was the retirement of Friz Hollings in South Carolina. As Lindsay Graham proved in his relatively easy victory to replace Strom Thurmond, South Carolina has moved steadily into the safe GOP column. Although nowhere near a popular as Miller, Hollings as an incumbent would have been formidable. Now, the seat seems like a safe pick-up.

Then there was North Carolina. Clearly campaigning for the Vice Presidential slot should any of the northeasterners capture the Democratic nomination for President, Democrat John Edwards left his Senate seat to campaign across the country. On the heels of Elizabeth Dole’s unexpectedly large margin of victory in her bid to replace Jesse Helms, Republicans remain confidant of yet another pick-up in a key southern state.

Notwithstanding these positive political developments, Republicans did face some risks of their own. Most notably, the incumbent Republican Senator from Illinois appeared all but unelectable and decided to step aside to at least create a shot for the GOP to hold the seat. While a shot, most believe it is a long shot. And, Governor Murkowski’s decision to appoint his daughter to fill his unexpired term in Alaska has placed an otherwise safe Republican seat in the at risk column. Then, there is the strong challenge by GOP Congressman Pat Toomey in Pennsylvania to incumbent GOP Senator Arlen Specter raising the possibility that Democratic Congressman Hoeffel might face a wounded GOP nominee in the General Election.

With all of these dynamics in play, a great deal of attention has now turned back to the south to see if Bob Graham, who had been campaigning for the Democratic nomination for President, decides to return to Florida to seek reelection. For Democrats, with Nickles retirement in Oklahoma, it could be a sign of unexpected possibilities. For Republicans, it will impact the priorities for deployment of resources. For voters, it is but another ebb and flow of Election 2004.