The Political Vine

Prologue

Hey there...just as an FYI...the world-renowned Political Vine newsletter recently passed its 5-year mark. To those of you who have been with us since the early issues, we thank you for your patronage.

To those of you who have been latecomers to the party, we welcome you.

To those of you whom have unsubscribed over the years because we said something you didn't like...well, if you're not here to read it, there's not much point in saying anything to you, is there?

Enough of the self-congratulatory prose...on with the show...

Sonny's "PO-Factor"...

Ever since the general election of 2002, we don't buy what polls say, regardless of who is running them. Dems, Repubs, Independents, the various "media outlets"...we just don't buy what they come-up with.

What happened in 2002 was that the majority of statewide polls showed Georgia's incumbent governor, Roy Barnes (D) as being re-elected right-up to the point where he was defeated by Sonny Perdue (R).

What we feel the polls did not measure...could not measure is something we term the "PO-Factor." What is it? It is a measure of just how pissed-off voters get about some candidates.

It is primarily an emotional measure that can only be detected if one dips into the nooks and crannies of a voting populace to find out how people feel. Or, perhaps one day, some pollster will figure out the right series of questions to ask to uncover the factor before it's too late. We won't hold our breath waiting for that Boy/Girl Genius to appear on the scene.

For Barnes' 2002 loss, the PO-Factor was high. Just think about the different segments of the voting populace he pissed-off: the teachers, the fans of the old state flag, both Dem and Repub, and an assortment of other demographic groups. All of which added to the critical mass which defeated him on Election Night, 2002. But, Barnes is old news (nothing personal, Mr. Barnes...by the way, good job on the Cobb County School Board stuff).

Perdue is current news. The results of our non-scientific poll aside, Perdue is in deep trouble if he thinks his reelection is a done deal.

It's one thing to piss-off members of the opposition party; that's to be expected, and encouraged. But, it's quite another to piss-off members of your own party by deliberate neglect.

We alluded to the amount of neglect the party has allowed in a bit we did back in May, right after the state convention. Those events (or, non-events, as it were), were indications of deep dissatisfaction with the party leadership and direction (or, lack thereof).

In addition to the dissatisfied party apparatus, another (and, more important bloc) of voters are feeling quite dissatisfied with the incumbent's performance: Republican voters who are female.

This bloc of voters is looking for candidates who understand them and their concerns. That doesn't necessarily imply that they would only vote for another female. However, a lot of these voters didn't grow-up under the "good 'ole boy" regime of the Old South. A lot of them are imports from other states. And, they have a very low tolerance for candidates who do not appear to be in tune with their issues.

If we factor in a few other bad political moves by the Governor: A) His promise of giving the flaggers a vote during his 2002 campaign on the St. Andrews Cross flag, and then not following through on that promise. Some claim the flaggers don't represent a big enough bloc for the Governor to worry about. However, at the margin, they can.

B) His intrusion into a contested primary last year in Gwinnett County...and, his candidate losing. Not a significant event, perhaps, at the time. But, again, at the margins, everything matters.

So, in 3 short years, the Governor has succeeded in pissing-off several distinct blocs of voters...people that elected him the first time. People he needs to work for him to get re-elected. People that "polls" will continue to miss in their surveys.

What's the solution for the Governor? He has some choices: 1) He could help Mark Taylor win his primary...2) He can work toward making sure that any possible skeleton Cathy Cox has in her career is uncovered and his campaign is holding it in case she wins the Dem primary...3) Hire some political "makeover artists" to spiff-up his performance and image (hint to the Governor's "peeps": DON'T bring in the Prez for a grandstanding op...his ratings in Georgia are lower than yours)...4) PV readers are encouraged to send us your suggestions...we'll print them if you allow us.

If Every Dem Switched Parties, Would We All Get Along?

Rumors have it that last week's newest newcomer to the Republican Party, State Representative Greg Morris (Vidalia), isn't going to be greeted with open arms from all of his Republican voters.

Down in his part of the state, they don't cotton much to "forgiving and forgetting" when it comes to Morris. As a Dem, he developed quite the reputation for being a major jack--- and quite un-Republican in his views. So, despite a press release in which he accuses his forsaken party as "too liberal," Morris's switch will not give him protection from a primary opponent.

Ralph Reed's Been Arrested!

It's fascinating what one finds on the Web these days. For instance, here's a living encyclopedia on the life and times of Ralph Reed, Jr.

We term this "living" because it appears to be pretty up to date with the latest news on RR.

One thing we didn't know about Ralph is that the young lad was arrested in 1985 for illegally entering an abortion clinic. What he planned on doing, one can only begin to guess.

To some of the more ardent members of the "pro-life" movement, Ralph's earlier acts may strike them as an act of heroism. These are the same folks who, to this day, probably think Eric Robert Rudolph's only problem was that he shouldn't have bombed the 1996 Atlanta Olympics.

What is especially interesting to us is the detail of the direct mail issue at the Christian Coalition, as described by then Chief Financial Officer, Judy Liebert.

Ralph getting kickbacks from direct mail consultants??? No way! Impossible! That would be unethical!

Well...we'll leave it all up to you to take the time to know the full story of Ralph and spend some time reading this online history.