John Kerry is learning a lesson that Bob Dole learned in 1996 - a sitting President can dominate the stage at will. Starting with President Bush’s speech on the future of Iraq and continuing with the dedication of the World War II Memorial in Washington, D.C. and through Memorial Day, George W. Bush has dominated the stage. And there is more to come. During the first weekend in June, the President will travel Normandy to honor those who fought on the beaches of Normandy sixty years earlier. By the time the second weekend in June, there will be no doubt among most Americans of the passion, conviction, and identification of George W. Bush as the Commander in Chief.

As the President’s approval ratings ease back up, Republicans will undoubtedly brief a slight sigh of relief. As John Kerry drifts further into obscurity, Democrats can only feel heightened anxiety as the prospects of another loss looms ahead. More significantly, the prospect of a political ticket with no momentum at the top will become more worrisome as Democrats are forced defend five open Senate seats in the South, and face difficult odds in the United States House. Yet, this is not the race many Republicans wanted.

First, the race that many Republicans did not want is a referendum race. In a world with as many uncertainties as exist today, there is great risk with a referendum race. It means that the challenger can run effectively a one issue race - “I am not George Bush.” When things are going well, the incumbent can do as well as Bill Clinton did in 1996. But, as 1996 proved, such success does not translate into large Congressional pickups and may even translate in to large political losses. Or, as George Bush proved in 1992, when things are not going well, the incumbent can lose notwithstanding the power of the office. The risks of a terrorist attack, unexpected casualties in Iraq, or of a stymied economy are dramatically increased.

Second, when a Party controls a majority in the Congress, the preference is always to de-nationalize the election so that the challenging party has to win 218 races in the House and 51 races in the Senate. With a referendum race, however, the challenging party need only ride the tide of a sea of change. The Republicans did it in 1994. The Contract With America provided the unifying theme to win 55 seats with a national agenda sufficient to overcome the institutional advantage of an incumbent party with all of its benefits. When things are going well, a popular Presidential nominee can lead to unexpected wins and larger margins. When things do not go so well for a sitting President, incumbent Members of Congress in the same Party can pay a heavy price.

In the next few weeks, the President will certainly ride the wave of the transition of power in Iraq, continued positive economic signs, and promising progress in domestic security. John Kerry can only watch helplessly as his political fortunes will be dictated by events that are beyond his control. Where those fortunes lead will undoubtedly decide not only his fate, but also the fate of many others who have found themselves, through no choice of their own, simply along for the ride.