Sizing up the Republican race for the United States Senate is no easy task. Some questioned whether either Congressman Johnny Isakson or Congressman Mac Collins would remain in the race all the way through qualifying. But, the rapid rush by a host of State Senators and Representatives to replace both in the Sixth and Eighth Congressional Districts has eliminated bailing out of the race as an option. With their respective Congressional seats already spoken for, both are now locked in for the long haul toward a primary date next summer. Here is an early handicap of the race.

Fundraising. Johnny Isakson has jumped out to a large, indeed mammoth, lead in fundraising. Prior to Collins’ entry into the race, many weighed in with their checkbooks in Isakson’s favor. When combined with his existing war chest, the early success in fundraising has given him an undeniable edge. Yet, as Roy Barnes proved definitively, a sizable lead in dollars does not translate into to a corresponding lead in votes.

Political Infrastructure. Having run statewide several years ago, Isakson should have the remnants of an organization capable of supporting a statewide race. Conversely, there seems to be a noticeable coalescing around Collins by both the conservative and religious right of the Party. As Georgia GOP primaries have proven, these groups can be the difference in a primary election in Georgia. Their ability to turn out votes, mobilize volunteers, and deliver election day surprises is noteworthy. The unknown question is whether the impressive grassroots organization developed by former GOP Chairman Ralph Reed will be in play. If so, it could be the difference.

Geography. Johnny Isakson hails from the GOP donut around Atlanta – Cobb County. Mac Collins hails from rural Butts County. Their campaign styles reflect their hometowns. Collins is clearly comfortable throughout the new Republican domain in Georgia – north, middle, and south rural Georgia. Isakson is more comfortable in the traditional Republican strongholds in suburban counties throughout the state. The challenge for each will be to crack into the other’s domain to prevent dominance.

Intangibles. The most whispered issue in the race will be the impact of Tom Perdue – chief political strategist extraordinaire. He successfully managed Saxby Chambliss to victory. Previously, he has guided such notables as Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist and the late Senator Paul Coverdell to wins. His ability to develop and implement a winning game plan is beyond any real dispute. Adding to the equation is Perdue’s personal disdain for Isakson. Most believe he personally recruited Collins to challenge Isakson from the right in the primary.

The President. Although President Bush endorsed Saxby Chambliss over Bob Irvin in the 2002 Senatorial Primary, it is unlikely that he will take sides between two sitting United States Congressmen bidding for an open Senate seat in Georgia. Should the race become one sided with a serious challenge by a waiting consensus Democratic candidate, it is possible. However, the chances of a one-sided race and a serious Democratic challenger are remote. The President will make his presence felt, but it will not be until after the primary and just enough to make sure that the open Senate seat goes Republican in November.