With almost seventeen months to go before the 2004 General Election, a “wait and see” attitude as settled in over the political landscape. For what seemed like years, but was actually months, the United States and the world waited for the war in Iraq to come and go. And like any watershed event, the decision made has been measured not by what was known or thought before the war, but by the facts and circumstances as revealed over time of what actually was.

Iraq was no Vietnam. The war effort did not get bogged down in the deserts of southern Iraq or the urban centers of its cities. While a single casualty is too many, there was no stream of heavy casualties tapping into a reluctant mood back home resulting in an increasingly unsure electorate.

Embedded reporters verified the descriptions of the moment resulting in a growing confidence in the accuracy of the reports from the government and its representatives. As a liberated Iraqi people celebrated, the horribles of a tyrant and his band of slugs were corroborated by graves, and accounts, and documents, and other physical evidence.

As opposed to soldiers returning to ungrateful protestors shamelessly attacking them, American soldiers returned to the tearful welcome of a grateful nation for their service and sacrifice. While the effort to rebuild a free Iraq continues, the resolve and determination of a focused Administration has opened the door for new prospects for peace in the Middle East and growing solidarity in opposition to terrorism as an acceptable means of protest.

Once the war was over, the attention turned rapidly back to the principle domestic issue on the plate – the economy. The excuse of the lingering cloud of war was gone. The President responded with a stimulus package consisting of tax cuts and economic incentives. Like the war in Iraq, the President’s economic package will be judged with the benefit of hindsight in months to come.

The possibilities are obvious to both Democrats and Republicans alike. Next October the economy may still be slumping with higher deficits and little prospect for improvement. If that happens, the successes of the war on terrorism and the victory in Iraq will likely count for little. No one needs to tell this President or his advisors that. Rarely does a day go by that some newspaper, commentator or political adversary does not refer to the 1992 election and the last Bush Presidency. 2004 could be the end to a promising Presidency and the GOP surge.

On the other hand, next October the economy may be humming along with a rallying stock market, low unemployment, and steady growth on the horizon. If that happens, it could be 1984 all over again, but with continued GOP gains in both the United States House of Representatives and Senate. If that happens, 2004 could be the end to the Democratic Party as it exists today.

Undoubtedly, there will be many more challenges in the coming seventeen months. Yet, with exception of the potential for peace between Israel and the Palestinians, the dynamics for the election have been put in motion. Now, voters will wait and see if this President was as right on the economy as he was on Iraq.