From Pollster John McLaughlin:

It appears Fred Thompson’s announcement of next week’s campaign kick-off has a few of the other campaigns a bit on the defensive, scrambling to release “strategy” memos and whispering to the media actually trying to suggest that it is too late to enter this race. In a Republican primary, it is never too late for a true leader with authentic conservative credentials.

Here are the facts:

– With months left to go before voting, this election is VERY fluid.
– Virtually every GOP primary or caucus exit poll taken in the last 20 years has shown that huge percentages of voters make up their minds in the final week before voting. It is foolhardy for any campaign to suggest that voter positions are already solidified at this stage of the cycle.

Consider the following:

GOP voters not satisfied with current crop: According to several recent public surveys taken prior to Fred Thompson’s announcement that he plans to be a candidate for president, huge percentages of GOP voters indicated they were not satisfied with the current GOP crop. In the Diageo/Hotline poll released just days ago, barely half (54%) of all GOP voters were satisfied with the current crop of GOP candidates with fully 38% not satisfied. This dissatisfaction creates fluidity which creates opportunity for an authentic conservative like Fred Thompson.

Exit polling: GOP voters make up their minds late:

Based on our review of exit polling data from years like 1996 and 2000 where there was an open GOP seat, significant percentages of voters decided for whom they would vote in the final week leading up to Election Day.

Iowa – 1996

Decided Who To Vote For In…

Last 3 Days 23%
Last Week 19% (42% cumulative)
(Source: 1996 CNN/VNS Exit Poll Data)

New Hampshire – 1996

Decided Who To Vote For In…

Election Day 23%
Last 3 Days 20% (43% cumulative)
Last Week 22% (65% cumulative)
(Source: 1996 CNN/VNS Exit Poll Data)

South Carolina – 1996

Decided Who To Vote For In…

Today 17%
Last 3 Days 14% (31% cumulative)
Last Week 24% (55% cumulative)
(Source: 1996 CNN/VNS Exit Poll Data)

New Hampshire – 2000

Decided who to vote for in…

Election Day 14%
Last 3 Days 12% (26% cumulative)
Last Week 24% (50% cumulative)
(Source: 2000 CNN Exit Poll Data)

South Carolina – 2000

When Did You Decide To Vote?

Today 9%
Last 3 Days 10% (19% cumulative)
Last Week 19% (38% cumulative)
(Source: 2000 CNN Exit Poll Data)

This entry was posted by Bill Simon, on Monday, September 3rd, 2007 at 6:59 pm and is filed under Odds and Ends and You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.