There’s a story posted on the PeachPundit.com blog regarding John Oxendine. The author of it is “Icarus”, whose real name is Charlie Harper (no, not the TV character, a real person).

Within the story, Harper weaves a little bit of fact with a lot of conjecture and innuendo directed at innocent bystanders. In one of his paragraphs, he writes:

“Behind the scenes, some are getting nervous about the reflection on the Republican party as a whole, and it was under this guise that Matt Towery called Congressman Westmoreland last week emphatically telling him he had to drop his claims against Oxendine. Towery documented the number of politicians connected with SEUS and numerous claims were made about the issue taking the whole party down. For the good of the party, Lynn needed to stand down.“

AND, then, there’s this paragraph in which Harper decides he has the right to malign as many people as possible in his usual attempt to paint a broad brush of, well, dare I say it: “Karen-Handel-esque” verbiage (which is quite suitable since Icarus is a devout Handel supporter):

“The question remains as to why Towery allowed himself to be dragged into the middle of this. He generally is considered to be a bright man, and understands that Ox is on the verge of toxic. So why was Towery calling a Congressman who gave exactly one interview on this topic weeks ago asking him to stand down? Why was this call made with Oxendine present?

I guess if I was being asked these questions, I would add Dick Pettys’ name to a story I wrote claiming I had a bad head injury too.“

There are several FACTS that I know of here that Harper neither knows, nor cares that he doesn’t know (which is worse than merely “not knowing”):

1) Matt Towery does have a head injury as described by this article on the Insider Advantage (“IA”) Website. He is recovering from a concussion brought about by a fall from the onset of vertigo that was triggered in the flight he had just taken.

2) The story was put out a few weeks after his fall because rumors were swirling at the Gold Dome that Towery was at death’s door and they decided to write the story before the AJC wrote the story. And, point of fact, Towery was very close to death at a time shortly after his fall. Contrary to Harper’s innuendo, the story was not published to “cover-up” any of Towery’s actions with regards to Congressman Lynn Westmoreland.

3) Matt Towery is an attorney with McKenna, Long

4) Matt Towery was in Oxendine’s office on behalf of a client (I am not going to release the name of that client as it doesn’t appear to be public info at the moment. It isn’t germane to the facts of this story, and unlike Charlie Harper, I do not think it is anyone else’s business who a lawyer has as a client.)

5) While Towery was in Oxendine’s office, Oxendine was ranting and raving about Westmoreland, and since he could not get Oxendine to chill-out and focus on his client’s matter, Towery did place a call to Westmoreland (someone he has known and been friends with since they were both young lads).

I do not know the contents of that call (and, neither does Charlie Harper, despite what Westmoreland or whoever his “sources” may have claimed to him), but the call was not made, as Charlie Harper claimed it was, under any “guise” of the “old Republican guard” being onboard the Ox’s campaign.

Now, I realize Harper hates Oxendine. But, for that hate to creep in the direction of maligning everyone who is known to be in the vicinity of Oxendine is a pathetic excuse for someone who tries to paint himself as a “blogger of integrity.”

In the last paragraph I excerpted from Harper’s post, Harper slams Dick Pettys, a well-respected journalist who has been around Georgia for…what?…20+ years? (Good one, Charlie. Way to…demonstrate just how much of a freaking moron you are.)

Now…to be clear, I am neither defending John Oxendine here, nor attempting to malign Lynn Westmoreland in this ongoing drama of Gubernatorial Candidate vs. Gubernatorial Candidate’s Supporter. The fact is, I do not know what the truth is between these two. And, neither does Harper.

But, one person I do know is Matt Towery. And, I personally know him to be a man of great integrity. I didn’t always know him this way. In my younger days, I was kind of like Little Charlie Harper and just dissed the crap out of Towery because of what “other people claimed” he was like. Well…I discovered I was wrong about Matt when I had the opportunity to get to know him several years ago. I discovered I had been an idiot for a number of years based on certain people lying to me (and some of those folks apparently have discovered Icarus to be a useful channel for their current lies).

Shortly after this encounter with Ox and Westmoreland, Towery recused himself from representing his client and other lawyers with McKenna, Long will handle the matter.

Matt told me personally that he has no ill will towards Harper for the story he wrote, but he would like it if Harper and the PeachPundit folks kept his name out of any future stories they write about Ox or anyone else for that matter.

So, Towery is an innocent bystander in this story. As is Dick Pettys. As is Tom Baxter. And, whether Charlie Harper believes in the “surrealness” of the IA story about Towery’s head injury, and the number of big-name politicians (and a former football coach of some dinky college in northeast Georgia that uses the colors of red and black) who have come to his aid in this matter, it is not important that Harper be “satisfied” with whether it is a believable story.

From my perspective, dare anyone ask how long has Mr. Harper been around, exactly? Two years, three years, maybe? Who the eff is Charlie Harper? Wow, a blog poster? Wow! All Republicans must gather around and worship and follow the Pied Piper of Georgia, eh?

Of course, it doesn’t matter that he actually hasn’t been around and accomplished anything of any signficance in this state.

Talk about “dumbing-down” the party, one only needs to look at Charlie Harper (the perfect useful idiot) and the handful of characters who apparently believe everything he says: That is, the folks who follow the useful idiots who cannot, themselves, think on their own in politics.

Introduction

Rumors have it that when Governor Perdue’s recently appointed Atlanta Circuit Superior Court Judge Shawn LaGrua takes her oath of office in a few months, the life, liberty, and property of every single man, woman, and child that comes before her court will be put in serious jeopardy in her courtroom.

How can this be? Well…according to the evidence we are about to present, LaGrua appears to have quite the documented history of pathological and psychopathic behavior when it comes to her method of practicing the law.

But…let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves…let’s go back to somewhat of the beginning of LaGrua’s history in the practice of law.

The Early Years

We don’t actually know that much about LaGrua in her “formative” years of practicing law. She graduated from GSU Law, and was admitted to the bar in 1987.

According to the GSU Law Alumni Website, she “started her career as an assistant district attorney in Dekalb County and moved to the Fulton County DA’s Office where she became Chief Senior Assistant District Attorney. After working for the Tallapoosa DA’s Office and again for Dekalb’s, she was appointed in 2004 as Solicitor General for DeKalb County.”

LaGrua’s current “title” is “Inspector General” of the Secretary of State. And, the “Inspector General” is in quotes because according to the 2009 Georgia Department of Audits’ Report, a position by that title doesn’t actually exist in the Secretary of State’s office. LaGrua’s official job title is “Legal Services Officer.”

Now, that appointment to Solicitor General of DeKalb County in 2004 is when things started getting weird around Shawn LaGrua…

Read the rest of this entry »

February 4, 2010
Garland Favorito: (404) 664-4044
garlandf@msn.com
VoterGA.org

SAVANNAH, GA – Former Republican Chatham County Commissioner, Jeff Rayno, announced today that he is filing a letter of complaint with the U.S. Justice Dept. The complaint cites potential Constitutional violations committed by former Secretary of State (SOS) Karen Handel and her Inspector General (IG) Shawn Lagrua during the December 16, 2009 State Election Board (SEB) meeting. His complaint, which also cites SEB member Kent Webb, is the fourth one filed by four different citizens against Shawn LaGrua’s IG office in the last two months.

Rayno asserts in the complaint that his Sixth Amendment rights under the U.S. Constitution were violated when he was referred to the Attorney General’s office for a felony investigation without probable cause or evidence that he had done anything wrong. He described that he was refused details of the accusations against him and therefore, denied due process and the standard presumption of innocence afforded to all Americans. The transcript of the meeting appears to corroborate his claims.

During the meeting, LaGrua stated that Rayno submitted forged petitions he collected on a drive to help get Chatham County Commission candidate, David Osbourne, on the ballot for the general election. Rayno determined that only one of 200 signatures was in question and asked to see it. LaGrua could not produce it, but she still recommended to the board that Rayno be referred to the office of the Attorney General for further investigation and prosecution. Board member, David Worley, sought to remove Rayno from being referred due to lack of evidence but Chairwoman Handel disagreed and instructed Mr. Webb to make a motion. Mr. Webb then motioned to refer Rayno to the Attorney General’s office and then Handel seconded the motion to pass it despite opposition from Mr. Worley.

In the letter Rayno contends that his case is not isolated but highlights another example of a systemic problem in the IG office. He cited the case of Laura Gallegos, one of three other complainants, as an example. Gallegos was charged with five matters asserted against her for an election certification error committed by the Lowndes County Board of Elections. Potential violations committed by her supervisor were ignored in the investigation. Although Mrs. Gallegos’ case was eventually dismissed, she spent thousands of dollars on attorney fees, suffered a foreclosure and was terminated from her job.

Rayno stated that he believes these dubious investigations are politically motivated. He explained that he was collecting signatures for a candidate who opposed Helen Stone, an associate of Karen Handel, who escorted Mrs. Handel when she visited Savannah prior to her campaign. Laura Gallegos has also stated that her supervisor, Deb Cox, was on a first name basis with Karen Handel and had gone to lunch with her when she visited the office.

All complaints and their supporting documentation are available on the Complaints tab of the www.voterga.org web site. VoterGA plans to submit a corroborating letter to the Justice Department describing why they also believe that there is a systemic problem in the office of the Secretary of State.

There is a new breed of lobbyist roaming the State Capitol these days during the 2010 Georgia General Assembly

These lobbyists are ordinary Georgians, not paid by any corporate interests for their lobbying work, but are lobbyists who volunteer their own time to participate in studying, tracking, and testifying for or against certain legislative bills in front of the committees.

These are not “children”, nor are they there for a lark. They are people who are fed-up with the way they’ve observed over the years how their own interests as citizens get hijacked by well-heeled corporate lobbyists who ply their trade with (for example) $200 hockey tickets for people like (as just an example) State Senator Don Balfour who traded his “humble service” to his state senate district to help Georgia Power ram-down legislation like last year’s SB-31, a bill written exclusively for the benefit of Georgia Power.

These new “citizen lobbyists” call themselves “Lobbyists for Life & Liberty“, which is not any kind of official group name. It just defines what they believe in.

Now, before your little minds start to spinning about what “Life” means and what “Liberty” means, I thought it might be a good idea to let the leaders of this new cause provide you with some straightforward Q & A. My interview was with Aaron Coalson, who is one of the founders of this cause:

PV: Explain to us a little bit about what a “Life & Liberty Lobbyist” is, and what your goals are.

A: Our goal is to help empower as many citizens as possible to be able to exercise their right to petition their government as mentioned in the First Amendment to the US Constitution. We are non-partisan and simply wish to speak up for our own life and liberty. Our main focus is constitutionally-restrained government. We are not exclusively a pro-life organization, though most of our fellow lobbyists are of that belief.

The “Life” in ‘Lobbyist for Life and Liberty’ is a much broader term than the “pro-life” term used in politics. We refer to an individual’s right to live his life as he or she sees fit, free from the intrusion of another violating their life or property.

Our purpose is to build an organization that believes in constitutionally-restrained government and each trained citizen be empowered to lobby on behalf of the beliefs they hold. We do not require our members to pass any sort of litmus test as to beliefs to get involved in taking back their government. We will train anyone (Republican, Democrat, liberal, conservative, whoever) who wishes to learn how to help take back their government.

PV: If citizens go through your training, do they need to agree to lobby your causes of “Life & Liberty” exclusively?

Read the rest of this entry »

Honorable Brian Kemp:

Due to a conversation I had yesterday with your legal counsel, Vincent Russo, I took it upon myself to do a little bit of research on Mr. Russo.

Mr. Kemp, according to the Georgia State Ethics Commission Website, Mr. Russo has made significant contributions to Gubernatorial Candidate Karen Handel, his former superior. Specifically:

December 16, 2009: $1000 contribution paid to Karen Handel for Governor, Inc.
June 25, 2009: $1000 contribution paid to Karen Handel for Governor, Inc.

Additionally, Mr. Russo has demonstrated that he is actively involved in supporting Ms. Handel for Governor by putting his name on a Host Committee for a fundraiser last Fall (not that there’s anything wrong about that per se), which may also indicate something more than just financial support:

“Young Professional Kick-Off Event a Huge Success

Last week we kicked-off the Young Professionals for Karen with an event in Atlanta. It was a huge success with almost 200 young professionals attending and showing their support for Karen.

We want to send a special thanks to the host committee for putting together such a strong event, and to all those who attended and joined Karen’s “Bring it On” campaign.

The hosts for the event were: Charlene Marino, Sarah Hawkins, Brian Stimson, Andrew Allman, Daniel Allman, Charlie Ozburn, Hunter Hill, Vincent Russo, Bo Keatley, Clay Cheshire, David Gordon, Andre Egros, Ginger DuBose, Rob Fortson, Steve Rickman, Danielle Simms, Jennifer Tommasello, Amy Salloum, Steve Butler, Jason Lunsford, Tray Guepet, Mike Kerfeld, Chris Wagner, Baoky Vu, Emily Culbertson, Craig Cancienne, Glenn Harvin, Amy Shultz, Lesley Newell and Chad Wingate.”

Source: http://republicancandidates.blogspot.com/2009/09/handel-for-governor-e-update.html

Mr. Kemp, I do not know what your office policy is, or if there is any state law regarding an employee being prohibited from contributing money to a political office, or actively participating in support of a candidate.

Whether there is or is not such a law is irrelevant, as I believe Mr. Russo, in any advice or counsel he gives you, will be giving you advice designed more to cover the actions of the former SOS (i.e., Karen Handel, and the person who originally hired him), than look out for your best interests.

I am also concerned with the possibility that he has been leaking information to the Karen Handel campaign about my (and anyone else’s) Open Records Requests sent to the SOS over the past few weeks.

In short, you may not have a general counsel in your employ who is truly looking out for your best interest. Please consider this a friendly notice whereby my only intention is to help protect your future endeavors as Georgia’s SOS.

Kindest regards,

BACKGROUND OF RELEVANT EVENTS

September 2008-October 2008 timeframe: Preparation for election commences with the checking-out process of the voting machines. Laura Gallegos (pronounced guy-AY-gos) and Gina Lofton (two Lowndes County BOE employees) placed each machine in pre-test mode and performed logic and accuracy testing (“L & A” tests) on the machines used for the general election as Gallegos had performed as trained for eight years. During the testing, Gallegos discovered that “Machine 17” would not print correctly. She believed that machine had a problem and marked the machine as needing repair to send to Kennesaw for repair as instructed by her supervisor, Lowndes County Elections Superintendent Deb Cox. Cox instructs Gallegos to mark the test card containing 947 test votes as a “bad card” and to place the card in a locked room. Gallegos applied a sticky note to the card and marked the note as the card being “bad” and not to be used, and placed the card in the locked room. Gallegos also notified Asst. Supervisor of Elections Susan Malkam about the card.

After she and Lofton performed all required testing, Gallegos proceeded to fill-out the L&A paperwork for the certification of the machine tests. At some time during this process of filling it out, she was called away from her desk, and she left the paperwork on her desk. That partially filled-out paperwork was removed without her knowledge and not seen again. (Note: this information on the election machine testing was derived from Laura Gallegos’s complaint filed with the SEB last December 8, 2009)

November 4, 2008 (Election Night): Gallegos was assigned to Precinct #21 at the First Christian Church. Supervisor Cox had sent only four machines to the precinct when the precinct had about ten thousand voters registered at that location. Poll lines were backed-up and people were being sent away to other locations by the poll workers. Gallegos remained at the precinct for the remainder of the day until after closing and tabulation was complete for that precinct.

At the Elections headquarters, someone performed the vote accumulation by uploading all memory cards into the machine. The Lowndes County Board of Elections later certified the results and uploaded the results to the Secretary of State.

Approximately two weeks after November 4, 2008: The county election office is notified by the Secretary of State’s office that there is a discrepancy between the number of votes received, and the number of actual voters who picked-up a ballot: The SOS claimed there were 947 extra votes that were included in the upload that could not be accounted for to match voters. Laura Gallegos worked on researching the issue and discovered that the card that had the 947 test votes on it (the one that was supposed to have remained in the locked room) were included in the actual election results during a re-accumulation. She reported it to Deb Cox.

Asst. Superintendent Susan Malkam asked Gallegos to complete the L&A paperwork regarding the machine testing (recall that the paperwork had been removed from her desk before Gallegos could finish it). Gallegos did as instructed, initialing the paperwork on behalf of both technicians who had performed the original testing.

Later, Malkam asked Gallegos to resign because of the problem with the test votes and Gallegos refused. Deb Cox requested the board to terminate Laura over objections from board member Cheryl Oliver. The board never questioned Gallegos about her actions and voted 2-1 to terminate her over the objections of Cheryl Oliver.

Deb Cox wrote a letter to the SOS-IG’s office stating that Gallegos may have “willfully interjected the bad card into the results, forged the initials of another worker, and maliciously purged a file to cover it up her failure to perform the L&A testing properly.” Cox also claims in this letter that Gallegos never told her about the bad card associated with “Machine #17” as discovered back during the testing phase, pre-election time.

An investigator with the state elections division (Steve McBrayer) was assigned the case by either Shawn LaGrua or Chris Harvey. McBrayer proceeded to investigate the allegations and a report was written that laid all charges and the responsibility for the 947 extra votes against Laura Gallegos.

On June 2, 2009, a case was laid-out by Chris Harvey against Laura Gallegos. The SEB voted to bind the case over to the AG’s office for a probable cause hearing.

Read the rest of this entry »

Rumors have it that in at least one circumstance (and, possibly, many others), former Secretary of State Karen Handel violated her oath of office by asserting authority she did not possess, and allowing Secretary of State Inspector General Shawn LaGrua free reign to initiate an investigation of a complaint of an election night irregularity without the Secretary of State’s office being given specific authorization from the State Elections Board (“SEB”) to do so, as is required by O.C.G.A. § 21-2-31(5).

PV’s Intro: Okay…our crack team of PV interns and legal researchers have done extensive research on this, and it looks like this rumor is a fact.

A warning to the reader: This story contains matters of state law, and not a whole lot of “political intrigue.” We will attempt to not put you to sleep (or ourselves).

BACKGROUND

Title 21 of the Official Code of Georgia (“OCGA”) is referred to as the “Elections Code” which spells-out the law on all aspects of how elections are to be conducted in Georgia.

Title 21 also spells-out how the State Election Board is formed (i.e., how appointments are made for people to serve on the SEB), as well as the specific duties assigned to the SEB.

A crucial, relevant point to our story is OCGA 21-2-31(5), which states the following:

“It shall be the duty of the State Election Board to investigate, or authorize the Secretary of State to investigate [emphasis added], when necessary or advisable the administration of primary and election laws and frauds and irregularities in primaries and elections and to report violations of the primary and election laws either to the Attorney General or the appropriate district attorney who shall be responsible for further investigation and prosecution. Nothing in this paragraph shall be so construed as to require any complaining party to request an investigation by the board before such party might proceed to seek any other remedy available to that party under this chapter or any other provision of law;”

Note that it states that it “shall be the duty of the State Election Board to investigate, or authorize the Secretary of State to investigate”…essentially, any decisions to investigate any allegations of voter fraud or other types of election fraud (or “irregularities”) are made solely by the State Election Board.

A different section of Title 21, OCGA 21-2-50, defines the duties of the Secretary of State for elections. That contains a whole bunch of stuff, but it never spells-out anything regarding the SOS being allowed to initiate any kind of investigation on its own with regards to an election complaint.

One section of 21-2-50 that (ahem) has been claimed by the Office of the SOS in the past to be used by the SOS to “presume” he/she has the “right” to initiate an investigation on their own is 21-2-50(a)(8):

“(a)(8) The Secretary of State shall exercise all the powers granted to the Secretary of State by this chapter and shall perform all the duties imposed by this chapter, which shall include…such other duties as may be prescribed by law;”

Trouble is, there is no law “prescribed” anywhere in OCGA that grants the right to the Secretary of State of deciding whether an investigation is to be initiated.

Enough background…time for the heart of the matter…

Read the rest of this entry »

Rumors have it that questions are beginning to surface regarding just how the Elections Division’s Office of the Inspector General was established under former Secretary of State Karen Handel’s administration, and whether aspects of it were legally operating under Georgia state statute.

PV Background: Prior to Handel’s administration, there was no “Office of the Inspector General” in the Secretary of State’s Elections Division. This was created, apparently, on the fly by Karen Handel when she took office in early 2007.

One other important thing to remember here: In 2003, when Governor Sonny Perdue took office, he established, by Executive Order, an office designated as the State Inspector General’s office. This office was created under the auspice of investigating allegations of government fraud and corruption within government agencies and departments. The “Office of Inspector General within the Secretary of State” is not connected in any way to the State IG’s office.

From here on out, to reduce confusion, PV will designate the IG’s office with the SoS to be “SOS-IG” and the State Inspector General’s office to be “SIG.”

PV has consulted with several Georgia attorneys who (on condition of anonymity) seem to believe that the SOS-OIG office itself may have been legally created…however one particular aspect of its operation may not be.
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Contact: Garland Favorito (404) 664-4044
garlandf@msn.com
http://www.voterga.org

January 18, 2009

ATLANTA, GA – All matters asserted against former Lowndes County elections technician, Laura Gallegos, were dismissed last Thursday during an administrative hearing. The State Election Board (SEB) had accused her of improper testing which led to the inclusion of 947 test votes in the 2008 Lowndes County election results. The case was investigated by the office of Shawn LaGrua, the Inspector General who reported to SEB chairwoman and former Secretary of State, Karen Handel.

The dubious facts of Mrs. Gallegos’ case have attracted statewide attention that helped her garner assistance from civic organizations including the Georgia Voting Rights Coalition, the ACLU Voting Rights Project, Defenders of Democracy, Operation Restoration, Madison Forum, and VoterGA. VoterGA assisted Mrs. Gallegos’ attorney, Converse Bright of Valdosta, Ga, in preparing the defense and offered expert witness testimony on her behalf.

Testifying for the Georgia State Elections Board (“SEB”), Mr. James Long, a voting machine engineer hired from the Federal Elections Assistance Commission to support Georgia’s state elections, provided technical background for the case that was prosecuted by Deputy Attorney General Ann Brumbaugh.

However, during cross examination, he concurred with points made by Mr. Bright in his opening argument, including that:

* The voting machines will accept test votes while accumulating actual election night results;

*None of the testing that Mrs. Gallegos allegedly skipped had anything to do with the inclusion of the 947 test votes into the live results on election night 2008;

*The 947 test votes were included when an unidentified election official loaded a memory card during vote accumulation and ignored a warning indicating the card had test votes;

*There was no evidence that Mrs. Gallegos, who was not even present during the accumulation, committed any violation on election night;

* The machine malfunction that Mrs. Gallegos discovered during testing caused it not to clear the test votes from that card;

* It was not the responsibility Mrs. Gallegos for matching the poll book totals to the recap of votes cast to detect potential discrepancies on election night 2008, but the sole responsibility of the county elections superintendent;

Judge John Gatto dismissed the case after confirming another opening argument made by Mr. Bright. He determined from testimony by supervisor, Deb Cox that she had not properly sworn in Mrs. Gallegos as a voting machine custodian.
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J. Randolph Evans
Column No. 998 (01/08/10)

In the United States Senate, 2010 will be the year of change. Constitutionally, it cannot be too large since only one-third of the United States Senate is elected in any single election year. This year, actually thirty-six states, including Georgia, will elect their U. S. Senator in November. Thirty-four Senators make up the one-third up for election in 2010. Two Senators are appointees who face an election to fill an unexpired term of a Senator.

(Interestingly, there have been several recent appointments to the Senate. Three appointments resulted from the Presidential election with replacements for Senators Barack Obama in Illinois, Joe Biden in Delaware and Hillary Clinton in New York. One resulted from the death of Senator Ted Kennedy in Massachusetts, and one resulted from the resignation of Senator Mel Martinez in Florida.)

Currently, Democrats hold a commanding sixty vote majority in the Senate with fifty-eight Democrats and two independents (Senator Joe Lieberman of Connecticut and Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont) who caucus with the Senate Democrats. Under the Senate rules, the sixty vote threshold is enormous.

With sixty votes, Senate Democrats can control the calendar, pass legislation, and most importantly, end debate on legislation. This last issue can not be overstated. Without sixty votes, the minority can stymie the will of the majority with a filibuster. In that way, the sixtieth vote is actually as valuable as the fifty-first vote in the Senate when viewed in the context of actually getting things done.

Hence, even a one vote change in the balance of the Senate is a big deal. Because there are a couple of moderate Senate Republicans (Senators Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins from Maine) who are prone to vote with Democrats on some issues, a three vote change would meaningfully change the balance of power in the Senate. A five vote
margin would of course be a huge change.

It happens. Just look at what happened over the last two election cycles. Heading into the 2006 elections, Republicans held a fifty-five to forty-five margin in the United States Senate. By the time the elections were over in November 2006, Democrats held a fifty-one to forty-nine margin. Just two years later, the Democrats (with independents) increased their margin from fifty-one to sixty in November 2008. In just four years, there was a fifteen vote swing from Republicans to Democrats.

As odd as it sounds given that Senators have a six year term, and only one third are up for reelection in any one cycle, things can actually change very quickly in the United States Senate. One thing that helps speed the change can be retirements. Winning a vacant Senate seat is much easier than beating an incumbent (although the elections in 2006 and 2008 prove that incumbents can be beaten in big swing elections.)

Of course, retirements can be a harbinger of things to come as incumbents decide that seeking reelection is not worth the effort. But not always.

In 2010, the actual numbers at risk appear, on their face, even. For example, eighteen of the thirty-six Senators up for election in 2006 are Democrats and eighteen are Republicans. There are ten retirements: five Democrats and five Republicans. Similarly, there are eighteen states in the country that appear safe: nine Democrats and nine Republicans (including Georgia – Senator Johnny Isakson).

The number of toss-ups range from eight to twelve seats. The remaining six to ten seats are at risk. The numbers for each (toss-ups and at risk) are about evenly split between Democrats and Republicans.

With these numbers, an actual change in control from Democrats to Republicans is possible although unlikely. (Since Vice President Joe Biden would cast the deciding vote in the event of a 50/50 tie, Republicans have to actually gain eleven to retake control.) Yet, in the context of the fifteen (15) vote two cycle swing in the last four years, anxieties for both parties are high.

The situational dynamics have added to these anxieties. The President’s political party typical loses seats in the midterm election. In addition, the President’s bold but unpopular agenda which includes the Stimulus packages, Cap and Trade legislation, and healthcare reform have led to plummeting approval ratings for the President and the Congress. The rising deficit, struggling economy, lingering Afghan and Iraqi wars and looming tax increases all combine to create a largely unhappy
electorate.

Yet, even some Republican incumbents appear to be struggling as an anti-incumbent (as opposed to anti-Democrat) sentiment emerges around the country. Amidst these numbers and dynamics, it appears that 2010 could be anybody’s game. The only thing for certain, with ten retirements and a handful of incumbent losses, is that the faces of the United States Senate will definitely change.

Stuart Rothenberg nails it:

“If you are looking for an analogy for a Republican victory in Massachusetts, the best one for Democrats may well be the stock market crash of 1929. Come Tuesday night, you could have Democrats jumping out windows and off roofs …”

Statement from Rep. Jim Cole Concerning the Secretary of State’s Position

“Governor Perdue has been a great friend and mentor for years now, and I have the utmost respect for him. While it was a great honor to be considered for the position of Secretary of State, after much prayer and reflection with my wife and family, I have decided to respectfully withdraw my name from consideration.

For the last six months, my wife Gaylyn and I have been planning to transition out of public service. Over the last several months, I have been exploring many different opportunities at Mercer University that would afford me more time with my young children and at the same time provide exciting career opportunities. We had planned to announce after the legislative session that I would not seek re-election in order to take one of these opportunities at Mercer.

The vacancy of the Secretary of State’s office and the Governor’s consideration of me for this position has been an unexpected whirlwind. At first, it seemed like the opportunity of a lifetime. Yet, as the emotions of the moment settled down over the weekend, Gaylyn and I thought through this issue carefully and knew that it would be best for our family to continue with our original plan.

This has not been an easy decision. I am profoundly grateful to the Governor for his confidence in me and the opportunities he has given me.

Serving middle Georgia in the House has been a tremendous honor. The future will hold many things, and I hope to return to public life when my most important priority – my children – are well on their way to success in life.

Jim Cole

Rep. Jim Cole
Administrative Floor Leader
Georgia House of Representatives
P.O. Box 787
Forsyth, GA 31029

—————————————————————————————-
Governor Appoints Brian Kemp Secretary of State

ATLANTA – Governor Sonny Perdue today announced that he is appointing former State Senator Brian Kemp as Secretary of State. Kemp, who served in the state senate from 2002 to 2006, is a current candidate for Secretary of State. He will serve out the remainder of the current term through the end of 2010. He will also continue his campaign this year and run for the full four-year term which begins in 2011.

“I have known Brian for several years, and he has shown a strong dedication and commitment to public service,” said Governor Perdue. “His leadership abilities and integrity will be a great asset to Georgia and the Secretary of State’s office.”

“I greatly appreciate the Governor’s confidence and am honored to serve the people of Georgia in this vital office,” Kemp said. “I will continue the honorable tradition of leadership demonstrated by Karen Handel, Cathy Cox, Lewis Massey , and others before them. I am eager to get started and deliver for the people of Georgia .”

Former Secretary of State Karen Handel stepped down last week to focus full time on her gubernatorial bid.

Kemp is a small business owner, specializing in real estate investments and property management, and serves on the board of St. Mary’s Hospital in Athens . In the state senate, Kemp served as Chair of the Public Safety and Homeland Security Committee, Vice-chair of the Higher Education Committee, Secretary of the Agriculture and Consumer Affairs Committee, and on the Appropriations Committee.

Kemp is married to the former Marty Argo. They have three daughters and live in Athens where they are active members of the Emmanuel Episcopal Church. He is a graduate of the University of Georgia.